BTC may have to spend time below $80k to build support

By checking the past five years of Bitcoin Bitcoin$89,086.78 Through CME futures trading data, it is possible to assess where these cryptocurrencies have historically spent time consolidating and, therefore, where support has been more or less established.

One useful way to frame this is to examine the number of trading days that Bitcoin spent within specific price ranges. The more time the price spends in a certain range, the greater the opportunity to build positions, which can later translate into stronger support.

Data from Investment.com It shows clear variations between price ranges. Excluding the very short period when Bitcoin traded at record levels above $120,000, Bitcoin spent the least amount of time in the $70,000 to $79,999 range, that is, just 28 trading days. Furthermore, it only spent 49 days in the $80,000 to $89,999 range. In contrast, lower price areas such as the $30,000 to $39,999 or $40,000 to $49,999 levels saw nearly two hundred trading days, highlighting how widely these areas have tested and consolidated.

For most of December, Bitcoin traded in a range between $80,000 and $90,000 after falling sharply from its all-time high in October. This correction has moved the price back towards an area where the market has spent a relatively short time historically, especially when compared to most of 2024, where Bitcoin spent a large number of days between $50,000 and $70,000. This uneven distribution suggests that support around $80,000, and even between $70,000 and $79,999, is less developed than in the lower ranges.

This observation is reinforced by Vitreous node Data. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows where the current supply of Bitcoin last moved, using an entity-adjusted framework that assigns each entity the full balance of its average acquisition price.

URPD indicates a noticeable shortfall in supply concentrated between $70,000 and $80,000, in line with futures data. Both sets of data suggest that if Bitcoin undergoes another corrective phase, the $70,000 to $80,000 area could represent a logical area where the price may need to spend more time consolidating to create stronger support.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on the daily open price of Bitcoin CME futures contracts, excluding weekends, which means the numbers reflect the number of times Bitcoin initiated a trading session within each price range rather than close or intraday price activity.