Main to remember
- The federal reserve maintained the rate of federal funds unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50%.
- According to BlackRock, a recession could benefit Bitcoin due to the increase in tax expenditure and the monetary stimulus.
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The Federal Reserve maintained unchanged interest rates Today, maintaining the rate of federal funds between 4.25% and 4.50% for the second consecutive meeting in the midst of increasing recession problems fueled by the economic policies of the Trump administration.
The central bank adjusted its 2025 economic forecasts, reducing GDP growth projections to 1.7% compared to the previous 2.1% in December, while simultaneously increasing unemployment forecasts to 4.4%, against 4.3%, the inflation of the PCE to 2.7% against 2.5% and basic PCE inflation to 2.8% against 2.5%.
The FED projects two interest drops of 50 points of 50 bass in 2025, in accordance with both market expectations and its December forecasts.
The decision corresponded to the generalized expectations of the market. The CME group Fedwatch tool indicated a probability of 99% that the Fed retaining its current target interest rates, reflecting the confidence of the market almost unanimous in this result.
In its FOMC declaration, the central bank has highlighted a resilient labor market but expressed its concerns about persistent inflation and global economic challenges. The Fed said that it would carefully monitor data on inflation and the labor market before adjusting the policy.
The president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, echoes this cautious approach last month, Notation of a strong economy This does not yet justify changes.
With its press conference a few minutes away, the markets expect clarity on the conditions that could cause future rate movements and how the Fed View Mounting Economic Risks.
Powell’s speech expected to bring clarity
This meeting on Wednesday was the first since the promulgation of Trump’s trade policies targeting China, Mexico and Canada.
The Fed had already pointed out these prices as a source of uncertainty at its January meeting, where the prices kept.
Economists warn that Trump’s prices could reverse the progress of recent inflation by increasing consumer prices and inviting reprisals, potentially tender the economy.
US inflation data supports a cooling trend – the consumer price index increased by 0.2% in February, which reduced the annual rate to 2.8% against 3%, with a basic CPI also up 0.2% – Persist targets.
In an interview with Maria Bartiromo by Fox News, Trump did not exclude the possibility of a recession. The Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, added to recession problems on March 10, saying that he could not guarantee that the United States would avoid one.
Powell’s future remarks are about to resolve these tensions: prices, risk of inflation and recession.
Since the rate decision met expectations, its words will bring an additional weight, potentially shaping the feeling of the market on the question of whether Trump’s policies could tip the economy on the slowdown territory.
Bitcoin could thrive in a recession despite the fears of the short -term market: Blackrock
As concerns about prices and recession, talk about Bitcoin heats up.
Blackrock’s global digital asset manager Robbie Mitchnick considers a recession as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin, noting that the increase in liquidity and monetary stimulus could feed its increase.
“Bitcoin is a long liquidity in the system. It is catalyzed by financial expenses and an accumulation of debts and deficit.” It is catalyzed by lower interest rates and a monetary stimulus. “
By comparing Bitcoin to gold, Mitchnick explained that although Bitcoin is fundamentally an unreasonable active, the feeling of the market sometimes creates short -term price correlations.
He argued that Bitcoin should act as a global asset, decentralized and non -sovereign similar to digital gold, but recognized that the short -term expectations of interest rates and the feeling of investors could influence its price.
Despite recent withdrawals from the market, Bitcoin has been up around 15% since early November.
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